Is biotech success dependent on scientific success, or on winning the lottery by simply surviving long enough to pay the bills?

The lottery angle looks real when you scan the headlines. AstraZeneca acquires EsoBiotec for $1 billion. Roche follows with 3.5 for 89bio. Then Genmab tops it off, dropping eight on Merus Each deal bigger than the last, like the stakes keep doubling. In any case, these numbers fuel the belief that strong data and a differentiated pipeline will inevitably be rewarded.

But most companies don’t operate in billion-euro territory. They operate in survival mode. Every invoice matters. Internet, coffee, and lab equipment. Expenses so small they’d be invisible in an M&A report, yet large enough to shorten your runway if ignored.

That’s the reflection behind the comic. Scienz and Lives inflate themselves on the back of M&A headlines, only for Celline to burst the bubble with a trivial invoice. The joke works because it reflects a truth: the distance between the dream of billions and the reality of bills is where most biotech companies live.

The insight to take away?

• Big exits are built on long survival. You can’t get acquired if you can’t stay solvent.
• Discipline beats optimism. Managing cash flow is as decisive as generating compelling data.
• Perception isn’t the whole story. Headlines celebrate the few jackpots, but survival strategies define the many.

My guess is that he companies that succeed are the ones that treat financial discipline as part of the science; ensuring the lab lights stay on long enough for the data to reach a partner or acquirer.

Billions build the dream.

Bills decide the future.

What’s the estimate on your exit?